Prof Alex Welte – Modelling impact of prevention strategies on cervical cancer incidence in SA
Prof Alex Welte
- The DST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), University of Stellenbosch
Title of the project
Modelling the impact of prevention strategies on cervical cancer incidence in South Africa.
This is a collaborative project between the DST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling (SACEMA) at the University of Stellenbosch and the Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research (CIDER) at the University of Cape Town. The team consists of epidemiological modellers who aim to estimate the long term impact of prevention strategies, such as human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening, on cervical cancer incidence. Valuable clinical input will be provided by Prof Jennifer Moodley, the director of cancer research at the
University of Cape Town.
In recent years, mathematical models are increasingly applied to cervical cancer research. Globally, but particularly important for the South African context, existing models share the limitation that the well-established interaction between HIV and HPV is not dynamically simulated, and therefore the need exists for a sophisticated model that fully incorporates the effect of HIV on HPV incidence and cervical disease progression. This study proposes to 1) extend an individual-based HIV/STI model to include HPV and its progression to cervical cancer, calibrate the model to South African HPV and HIV prevalence data and validate the model with cervical cancer incidence data and 2) evaluate the potential impact of various prevention methods on cervical cancer incidence.